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Backwards
decision making
- The
"rational" manager thinks...decides...acts - in
that order.
- Real
world decision making is not that rational or linear.
- Trial
and error action often occurs first, followed by reflection,
and only then a decision.
- It's
like house hunting - you start with some criteria, but revise
them once you have seen features in houses that you hadn't
thought of in adance.
- Decision
making in such cases is a process of discovery rather than
one of prior thought before doing anything.
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- Like Honda
executives riding around on small motorbikes when they first arrived
in California and, seeing how bystanders reacted, started selling
them.
- Managers
don't admit the blind alleys they blunder down before arriving
at decisions.
- So they
pretend to arrive at decisions solely through reason.
- We often
like to try something before we make our minds up about it
- The best
decisions often occur only after several mistakes are made.
- By pretending
otherwise, managers perpetuate the myth of rational decision making.
- This makes
it extremely difficult for anyone to admit mistakes.
- If you
feel ashamed because you don't make decisions in the ideally rational
way, your confidence could be undermined.
- This feeling
will only make you more resolved to keep up the pretence.
- The morale
of the story is to start celebrating backwards decision making.
- This means
admitting the blind alleys we pursue enroute to decisions.
- Entrepreneurial
behaviour calls for more risk taking and improvisation anyway.
- Struggling
to think it all through in advance of trial and error action
is too risk averse.
- Research
shows that people who make decisions instinctively often make
better decisions than those who painstakingly gather all the facts
before committing themselves.
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All
pages written by Mitch
McCrimmon, Ph.D. and copyright © Self Renewal Group 1996-2008 |
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